My papers are organized by topic to make them easier to find. There is some duplication/cross-listing. For a chronological list of my articles look at my cv.
Topics
Health
Ten Rules for Conducting Retrospective Pharmacoepidemiological Analyses: Example COVID-19 Study
Powell, Michael, Allison Koenecke, James Brian Byrd, Akihiko Nishimura, Maximilian F. Konig, Ruoxuan Xiong, Sadiqa Mahmood, et a Frontiers in Pharmacology, 12 (2021). https://doi.org/10.3389/fphar.2021.700776 July 28, 2021
Alpha-1 adrenergic receptor antagonists to prevent hyperinflammation and death from lower respiratory tract infection.
Koenecke, Allison, Michael Powell, Ruoxuan Xiong, Zhu Shen, Nicole Fischer, Sakibul Huq, Adham M. Khalafallah et al. eLife 2021:e61700. 10.7554/eLife.61700 June 11, 2021
The Association Between Alpha-1 Adrenergic Receptor Antagonists and In-Hospital Mortality From COVID-19.
Rose, Liam, Laura Graham, Allison Koenecke, Michael Powell, Ruoxuan Xiong, Zhu Shen, Brett Mench, et al. Frontiers in Medicine 8 (2021). March 31, 2021
Market Design to Accelerate COVID-19 Vaccine Supply.
Castillo, Juan Camilo, Amrita Ahuja, Susan Athey, Arthur Baker, Eric Budish, Tasneem Chipty, Rachel Glennerster, et al. Science 371, no. 6534 (2021): 1107–9. February 25, 2021
Association of α1-Blocker Receipt With 30-Day Mortality and Risk of Intensive Care Unit Admission Among Adults Hospitalized With Influenza or Pneumonia in Denmark.
Thomsen, Reimar W., Christian Fynbo Christiansen, Uffe Heide-Jørgensen, Joshua T. Vogelstein, Bert Vogelstein, Chetan Bettegowda JAMA network open 4, no. 2 (2021): e2037053-e2037053. February 1, 2021
Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability.
Ahuja, Amrita, Susan Athey, Arthur Baker, Eric Budish, Juan Camilo Castillo, Rachel Glennerster, Scott Duke Kominers, et al. AEA Papers and Proceedings 111 (2021): 331–35. February 2021
Econometric Theory and Machine Learning
Semiparametric Estimation of Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments
Peter J Bickel, Aiyou Chen, Guido W. Imbens, Michael Pollmann Working Paper, arXiv:2109.02603 September 2021
Breiman’s Two Cultures – A Perspective from Econometrics
Guido Imbens Observational Studies, Volume 7, Issue 1, July 2021 July 2021
Federated Causal Inference in Heterogeneous Observational Data
Ruoxuan Xiong, Allison Koenecke, Michael Powell, Zhu Shen, Joshua T. Vogelstein arXiv:2107.11732 August 2021
Off-Policy Evaluation via Adaptive Weighting with Data from Contextual Bandits
Ruohan Zhan, Vitor Hadad, David A. Hirshberg arXiv:2106.02029 June 2021
Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social science
Jake M. Hofman, Duncan J. Watts Nature (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03659-0. June 2021
Policy Learning with Adaptively Collected Data
Ruohan Zhan, Zhimei Ren, Zhengyuan Zhou arXiv:2105.02344 May 2021
Design-based Analysis in Difference-In-Differences Settings with Staggered Adoption
Guido Imbens Journal of Econometrics, Advanced online April 21, 2021 April 21, 2021
Using Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks for the Design of Monte Carlo Simulations
Guido Imbens, Jonas Metzger, Evan Munro Journal of Econometrics, Advanced online March 20, 2021 March 20, 2021
Adapting to misspecification in contextual bandits with offline regression oracles
Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy, Vitor Hadad arXiv:2102.13240 February 26, 2021
Confidence intervals for policy evaluation in adaptive experiments.
Hadad, Vitor, David A. Hirshberg, Ruohan Zhan, Stefan Wager, and Susan Athey Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 15 (2021). February 12, 2021
Policy Learning with Observational Data (previously titled “Efficient Policy Learning”)
Stefan Wager Econometrica. arXiv:1702.02896 January 2021
Local Linear Forests
Rina Friedberg, Julie Tibshirani, Stefan Wager Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics.
arXiv preprint: arXiv.org/abs/1807.11408 October 2020
Policytree: Policy learning via doubly robust empirical welfare maximization over trees
Erik Sverdrup, Ayush Kanodia, Zhengyuan Zhou, Stefan Wager Journal of Open Source Software 5(50, 2232 June 22, 2020
Combining Experimental and Observational Data to Estimate Treatment Effects on Long Term Outcomes
Raj Chetty , Guido Imbens arXiv:2006.09676 June 17, 2020
Survey Bandits with Regret Guarantees
Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy arXiv:2002.09814 February 23, 2020
Optimal Experimental Design for Staggered Rollouts
Ruoxuan Xiong, Mohsen Bayati, Guido Imbens arXiv:1911.03764 November 2019
Estimating Treatment Effects with Causal Forests: An Application
Stefan Wager Observational Studies 5, September 2019, 21-35
Sufficient Representations for Categorical Variables
Jonathan Johannemann, Vitor Hadad, Stefan Wager arXiv:1908.09874 August 2019
Counterfactual Inference for Consumer Choice Across Many Product Categories
Rob Donnelly, Francisco R. Ruiz, David Blei arXiv:1906.02635 June 7, 2019
Synthetic Difference In Differences
Dmitry Arkhangelsky, David A. Hirshberg, Guido W. Imbens, Stefan Wager arXiv:1812.09970 January 31, 2019
SHOPPER: A Probabilistic Model of Consumer Choice with Substitutes and Complements
Francisco Ruiz, David Blei Annals of Applied Statistics (forthcoming), 2019
Ensemble Methods for Causal Effects in Panel Data Settings
Mohsen Bayati, Guido Imbens, Zhaonan Qu American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2019, Vol. 109, pp. 65-70
Machine Learning Methods Economists Should Know About
Guido Imbens arXiv:1903.10075 March 24, 2019
Generalized Random Forests
Julie Tibshirani, Stefan Wager Annals of Statistics, January 2019, Vol. 47, Issue 2; pp. 1148-1178
Learning in Games with Lossy Feedback
Zhengyuan Zhou, Panayotis Mertikopoulos, Nicholas Bambos, Peter Glynn, Yinyu Ye 32nd Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS 2018), Montréal, Canada.
Offline Multi-Action Policy Learning: Generalization and Optimization
Zhengyuan Zhou, Stefan Wager arXiv:1810.04778 October 10, 2018
Stable Predictions across Unknown Environments
Kun Kuang, Ruoxuan Xiong, Peng Cui, Bo Li KDD 2018: The 24th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining.
arXiv:1806.06270 June 16, 2018
Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests
Stefan Wager Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2018, 1-15
Estimating Heterogeneous Consumer Preferences for Restaurants and Travel Time Using Mobile Location Data
David Blei, Robert Donnelly, Francisco Ruiz, Tobias Schmidt American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2018: Vol .108, pp. 64-67
Estimation Considerations in Contextual Bandits
Maria Dimakopoulou, Guido Imbens arXiv:1711.07077 March 2, 2018
Approximate residual balancing: debiased inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions
Guido W. Imbens, Stefan Wager Journal of the Royal Statistical Society-Series B, February 2018, Vol 80, Issue 4, pp. 597-623
Structured Embedding Models for Grouped Data
Maja Rudolph, Francisco Ruiz, David Blei Neural Information Processing Systems, 2017: 250-260
Context Selection for Embedding Models
Liping Liu, Francisco Ruiz, David Blei Neural Information Processing Systems, 2017: 4819-4828
When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?
Alberto Abadie, Guido Imbens, Jeffrey Wooldridge arXiv:1710.02926 October 9, 2017
Sampling-based vs. Design-based Uncertainty in Regression Analysis (previously titled: Finite Population Causal Standard Errors)
Alberto Abadie, Guido W. Imbens, Jeffrey M. Wooldridge Econometrica (forthcoming). arXiv:1706.01778v1 June 6, 2017
The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation
Guido Imbens Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31(2), Spring 2017: 3-32 July 2016
Estimating Average Treatment Effects: Supplementary Analyses and Remaining Challenges
Guido Imbens, Thai Pham, Stafan Wager American Economic Review, 107(5), May 2017: 278-281
Exact P-values for Network Interference
Dean Eckles, Guido W. Imbens Journal of the American Statistical Association. 2017.
The Econometrics of Randomized Experiments
Guido Imbens Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, 1 (2017): 73-140.
Beyond Prediction: Using Big Data for Policy Problems
Science. Feb 03, 2017: Vol. 355, Issue 6324, pp. 483-485 Feb 2017
Recursive Partitioning for Heterogeneous Causal Effects
Guido W. Imbens PNAS, 2016, 113(27):7353-7360; published ahead of print July 5, 2016
Machine Learning and Causal Inference for Policy Evaluation
KDD ’15 Proceedings of the 21th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, Pages 5-6
A Measure of Robustness to Misspecification
Guido W. Imbens The American Economic Review, 105(5), May 2015:476-480
Discrete Choice Models with Multiple Unobserved Choice Characteristics
Guido W. Imbens International Economic Review, 48 (4), November 2007:1159-1192
Nonparametric Approaches to Auctions
Philip A. Haile, Handbook of Econometrics. 2007, Vol. 6, Issue A, Pages 3847–3965
Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Difference-in-Differences Models
Guido W. Imbens Econometrica, 74(2), March 2006:431-497 Supplemental Material
Download CIC Code
Matlab Programs and Documentation for Applying CIC Model and generating tables (check with authors for potential updates and for Stata implementation)
Slides for UCL seminar: Distributions of Treatment Effects in Experimental Settings: Applications of Nonlinear Difference-in-Difference Models
Empirical Models of Auctions
Philp A. Haile NBER Working Paper No. 12126
Blundell, Richard, Whitney Newey, and Torsten Persson (eds.) Advances in Economics and Econometrics, The- ory and Applications: Ninth World Congress, Volume II. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006, ch. 1, 1-45
Identification of Standard Auction Models
Philip A. Haile Econometrica, 70(6), November 2002:2107-2140 August 2000
September 2001
An Empirical Framework for Testing Theories About Complementarity in Organizational Design
Scott Stern NBER Working Paper No. 6600 February 1998
Social Impact
Shared Decision-Making : Can Improved Counseling Increase Willingness to Pay for Modern Contraceptives?
Bergstrom, Katy, Hadad, Vitor, Jamison, Julian C., Ozler, Berk, Parisotto, Luca, Sama, Julius Dohbit Working Paper; World Bank September 2021
Market Design to Accelerate COVID-19 Vaccine Supply.
Castillo, Juan Camilo, Amrita Ahuja, Susan Athey, Arthur Baker, Eric Budish, Tasneem Chipty, Rachel Glennerster, et al. Science 371, no. 6534 (2021): 1107–9. February 25, 2021
Falling living standards during the COVID-19 crisis: Quantitative evidence from nine developing countries.
Egger, Dennis, Edward Miguel, Shana S. Warren, Ashish Shenoy, Elliott Collins, Dean Karlan, Doug Parkerson et al. Science Advances 7, no. 6 (2021): eabe0997. February 5, 2021
Auctions, Market Design, and Online Advertising (Theory, Empirical, and Econometrics)
Market Design to Accelerate COVID-19 Vaccine Supply.
Castillo, Juan Camilo, Amrita Ahuja, Susan Athey, Arthur Baker, Eric Budish, Tasneem Chipty, Rachel Glennerster, et al. Science 371, no. 6534 (2021): 1107–9. February 25, 2021
Peaches, Lemons, and Cookies: Designing Auction Markets with Dispersed Information.
Moshe Babaioff, Michael D. Grubb, Ittai Abraham Games and Economic Behavior November 2020 Vol. 124 Pages 454–477. November 2020
The Impact of Consumer Multi-homing on Advertising Markets and Media Competition
Emilo Calvano, Joshua S. Gans Management Science, 64(4), April 2018: 1574-1590
The Digital Privacy Paradox: Small Money, Small Costs, Small Talk
Christian Catalini, Catherine E. Tucker Working Paper February 2017
Position Paper: Sponsored Search Auctions are Combinatorial
Ian A. Kash, Peter Key, David C. Parkes, Mahyar Salek, Moshe Tennenholtz Working paper Coming soon
Consumer Tracking and Efficient Matching in Online Advertising Markets
Emilio Calvano, Joshua Gans Working Paper Coming soon
Information, Privacy and the Internet – An Economic Perspective
CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis June 2014
Set-Asides and Subsidies in Auctions
Dominic Coey, Jonathan Levin American Economic Journals: Microeconomics, 5(1): 1-27 February 2013
Appendix
The Impact of Aggregators on Internet News Consumption
Markus Mobius, Jeno Pal Working Paper January 2017, February 2012 Version
A Structural Model of Sponsored Search Advertising Auctions
Denis Nekipelov Working Paper January 2012
Position Auctions with Consumer Search
Glenn Ellison Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 126(3), 2011, 1213-1270 2010
2008 Working Paper
Comparing Open and Sealed Bid Auctions: Theory and Evidence from Timber Auctions
Jonathan Levin, Enrique Seira Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 126(1), 2011, 207-257 Supplementary Material
The Impact of Targeting Technology on Advertising Markets and Media Competition
Joshua Gans American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2010
Skewed Bidding in Pay Per Action Auctions for Online Advertising
Nikhil Agarwal, David C. Yang American Economic Review, 99(2): 441-47
Nonparametric Approaches to Auctions
Philip A. Haile, Handbook of Econometrics. 2007, Vol. 6, Issue A, Pages 3847–3965
Collusion with Persistent Cost Shocks
Kyle Bagwell Econometrica,76(3), May 2008:493-540 July 2006
Supplementary Material
Empirical Models of Auctions
Philp A. Haile NBER Working Paper No. 12126
Blundell, Richard, Whitney Newey, and Torsten Persson (eds.) Advances in Economics and Econometrics, The- ory and Applications: Ninth World Congress, Volume II. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006, ch. 1, 1-45
Collusion and Price Rigidity
Kyle Bagwell, Chris Sanchirico Review of Economic Studies, 71(2):317-349 1998 version: MIT Working Paper 98-23
Dynamic Auctions with Persistent Private Information
Kyle Bagwell Working Paper September 2003
Identification of Standard Auction Models
Philip A. Haile Econometrica, 70(6), November 2002:2107-2140 August 2000
September 2001
Optimal Collusion with Private Information
Kyle Bagwell RAND Journal of Economics,32 (3), September 2001: 428-465 MIT Working Paper 99-12
Single Crossing Properties and the Existence of Pure Strategy Equlibria in Games of Incomplete Information
Econometrica, 69 (4) July 2001: 861-890 The July 1997 version has numerical analysis of asymmetric auctions. July 1997 Paper: scpgii.ps. July 1987 Appendix: scpgiiap.ps
Information and Competition in U.S. Forest Service Timber Auctions
Jonathan Levin Journal of Political Economy, 109 (2), April 2001: 375-417
Empirical Industrial Organization and Econometrics of IO
Generic Drug Repurposing for COVID-19 and Beyond
Rena Conti, Richard Frank, Jonathan Gruber Boston University, Institute for Health Innovation Policy, July 15, 2020
Alpha-1 adrenergic receptor antagonists for preventing acute respiratory distress syndrome and death from cytokine storm syndrome
Joshua T. Vogelstein, Michael Powell, Allison Koenecke, Ruoxuan Xiong, Nicole Fischer, et al. arXiv:2004.10117 April 21, 2020
Counterfactual Inference for Consumer Choice Across Many Product Categories
Rob Donnelly, Francisco R. Ruiz, David Blei arXiv:1906.02635 June 7, 2019
SHOPPER: A Probabilistic Model of Consumer Choice with Substitutes and Complements
Francisco Ruiz, David Blei Annals of Applied Statistics (forthcoming), 2019
Experienced Segregation
Billy Ferguson, Matthew Gentzkow, Tobias Schmidt Working Paper February 2019
Estimating Heterogeneous Consumer Preferences for Restaurants and Travel Time Using Mobile Location Data
David Blei, Robert Donnelly, Francisco Ruiz, Tobias Schmidt American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2018: Vol .108, pp. 64-67
Beyond Prediction: Using Big Data for Policy Problems
Science. Feb 03, 2017: Vol. 355, Issue 6324, pp. 483-485 Feb 2017
Bitcoin Pricing, Adoption, and Usage: Theory and Evidence
Iva Parashkevov, Vishnu Sarukkai, Jing Xia Working Paper August 2016
Set-Asides and Subsidies in Auctions
Dominic Coey, Jonathan Levin American Economic Journals: Microeconomics, 5(1): 1-27 February 2013
Appendix
The Impact of Aggregators on Internet News Consumption
Markus Mobius, Jeno Pal Working Paper January 2017, February 2012 Version
A Structural Model of Sponsored Search Advertising Auctions
Denis Nekipelov Working Paper January 2012
Comparing Open and Sealed Bid Auctions: Theory and Evidence from Timber Auctions
Jonathan Levin, Enrique Seira Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 126(1), 2011, 207-257 Supplementary Material
Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Consumer Demand, and Advertising: The Case of Internet Search
Maya Cohen Meidan Working Paper November 2010
Discrete Choice Models with Multiple Unobserved Choice Characteristics
Guido W. Imbens International Economic Review, 48 (4), November 2007:1159-1192
Nonparametric Approaches to Auctions
Philip A. Haile, Handbook of Econometrics. 2007, Vol. 6, Issue A, Pages 3847–3965
Empirical Models of Auctions
Philp A. Haile NBER Working Paper No. 12126
Blundell, Richard, Whitney Newey, and Torsten Persson (eds.) Advances in Economics and Econometrics, The- ory and Applications: Ninth World Congress, Volume II. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006, ch. 1, 1-45
Identification of Standard Auction Models
Philip A. Haile Econometrica, 70(6), November 2002:2107-2140 August 2000
September 2001
The Impact of Information Technology on Emergency Health Care Outcomes
Scott Stern RAND Journal of Economics,33(3), Autumn 2002:399-432
Information and Competition in U.S. Forest Service Timber Auctions
Jonathan Levin Journal of Political Economy, 109 (2), April 2001: 375-417
Information Technology and Training in Emergency Call Centers
Scott Stern Proceedings of the Fifty-First Annual Meetings (New York, Jan 3-5, 1999). Madison, WI: Industrial Relations Research Association, pp. 53-60
An Empirical Framework for Testing Theories About Complementarity in Organizational Design
Scott Stern NBER Working Paper No. 6600 February 1998
Dynamic and Repeated Games and Mechanisms
A Theory of Community Formation and Social Hierarchy
Emilio Calvano, Saumitra Jha Working Paper August 2016
Dynamic Auctions with Persistent Private Information
Kyle Bagwell Working Paper In progress
Dynamics of Open Source Movements
Glenn Ellison Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Vol. 23, No.2, 294-316, Summer 2014 April 2014
An Efficient Dynamic Mechanism
Ilya Segal Econometrica, Vol. 81, No. 6 (November, 2013), 2463-2485 June 2013
Designing Efficient Mechanisms for Dynamic Bilateral Trading Games
Ilya Segal American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2007 January 2007
Collusion with Persistent Cost Shocks
Kyle Bagwell Econometrica,76(3), May 2008:493-540 July 2006
Supplementary Material
Efficiency in Repeated Trade with Hidden Valuations
David A. Miller Theoretical Economics, Volume 2, Number 3 (September 2007), 299-354 June 2006
The Optimal Degree of Discretion in Monetary Policy
Andrew Atkeson, Patrick Kehoe Econometrica, 73 (5), September 2005, 1431-1476
Collusion and Price Rigidity
Kyle Bagwell, Chris Sanchirico Review of Economic Studies, 71(2):317-349 1998 version: MIT Working Paper 98-23
Optimal Collusion with Private Information
Kyle Bagwell RAND Journal of Economics,32 (3), September 2001: 428-465 MIT Working Paper 99-12
Investment and Market Dominance
Armin Schmutzler RAND Journal of Economics, 32 (1), Spring 2001: 1-26
Economics of Organizations
The Allocation of Decision Authority to Human and Artificial Intelligence
Joshua Gans, Kevin A. Bryan NBER Working Paper no. 26673
DOI: 10.3386/w26673 January 2020
Economists (and Economics) in Tech Companies
Michael Luca Journal of Economics Perspectives, Vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 209-30, winter 2019
A Theory of Community Formation and Social Hierarchy
Emilio Calvano, Saumitra Jha Working Paper August 2016
The Nature and Incidence of Software Piracy: Evidence from Windows
Scott Stern Chapter in NBER book Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy (2015), Avi Goldfarb, Shane Greenstein, and Catherine Tucker, editors (p.443 – 477) April 2015
Dynamics of Open Source Movements
Glenn Ellison Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Vol. 23, No.2, 294-316, Summer 2014 April 2014
What Does Performance in Graduate School Predict? Graduate Economics Education and Student Outcomes
Larry Katz, Alan B. Krueger, James Poterba, Steve D. Levitt American Economic Review, 97(2): 512-520 January 2007
The Impact of Information Technology on Emergency Health Care Outcomes
Scott Stern RAND Journal of Economics,33(3), Autumn 2002:399-432
Organizational Design: Decision Rights and Incentive Contracts
John Roberts American Economic Review, 91(2), May 2001: 200-205
Mentoring and Diversity
Chris Avery, Peter Zemsky American Economic Review 90 (4) September 2000: 765-786 October 1998 version (includes labor market model)
Information Technology and Training in Emergency Call Centers
Scott Stern Proceedings of the Fifty-First Annual Meetings (New York, Jan 3-5, 1999). Madison, WI: Industrial Relations Research Association, pp. 53-60
An Empirical Framework for Testing Theories About Complementarity in Organizational Design
Scott Stern NBER Working Paper No. 6600 February 1998
Product and Process Flexibility in an Innovative Environment
Armin Schmutzler RAND Journal of Economics, 26 (4), Winter1995: 557-574
Monotone Comparative Statics and Applications (Value of Information, Uncertainty, Existence of Equilibria, Games with Strategic Substitutes)
The Value of Information in Monotone Decision Problems
Jonathan Levin Research in Economics (2017), doi: 10.1016/j.rie.2017.01.001
Monotone Comparative Statics Under Uncertainty
Quarterly Journal of Economics,CXVII (1), February 2002, 187-223 1998 Working Paper Version, MIT Working Paper 96-22, with additional results
Single Crossing Properties and the Existence of Pure Strategy Equlibria in Games of Incomplete Information
Econometrica, 69 (4) July 2001: 861-890 The July 1997 version has numerical analysis of asymmetric auctions. July 1997 Paper: scpgii.ps. July 1987 Appendix: scpgiiap.ps
Investment and Market Dominance
Armin Schmutzler RAND Journal of Economics, 32 (1), Spring 2001: 1-26
Investment and Information Value for a Risk Averse Firm
MIT Working Paper 00-30 November 2000
Characterizing Properties of Stochastic Objective Functions
MIT Working Paper 96-1R October 2000
Robust Comparative Statics (Draft of Chapters 0-4)
Paul Milgrom, John Roberts Teaching notes for a graduate micro class integrated with some producer theory
Note: this draft may have typos and is generally not polished. I have posted it in response to requests, but please use at your own risk.
Product and Process Flexibility in an Innovative Environment
Armin Schmutzler RAND Journal of Economics, 26 (4), Winter1995: 557-574